Is Russia Preparing for Another Cold War?

Is Russia preparing for Cold War II? It would seem likely to anyone reading the news out of Moscow lately.^[1] As we reported a few months ago in this blog, Russia has ratcheted up their spying operations in the U.S. to a level that may actually surpass that of their Cold War efforts.^[2] Now it has been claimed that Russia's espionage operation in Britain is also operating at the level of the Cold War and involves about half of the staff accredited to its diplomatic missions in London.^[3]

It has been asserted that their tasks range from seeking military and commercial secrets to monitoring Russian dissidents based in London, most notably Boris Berezovsky, the billionaire and outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin.^[4]

When Britain expelled four Russian diplomats in July^[5] - responding to Moscow's failure to hand over the key suspect in the murder of Alexander Litvinenko - the individuals identified for eviction were all believed to be from the SVR.^[6]

This move left 62 diplomats accredited to Russia's embassy, consulate and trade mission in London; of these, Whitehall sources say that about 30 may have intelligence links, which has probably been a proportion that has been constant for decades.^[7] There are indications that after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, overseas espionage was reduced simply because Russia’s economic crisis made it impossible to afford the cost.^[8]

This has proved to be a momentary lapse and the Russian espionage operation in Britain and the U.S. probably returned to Cold War levels more than a decade ago. Mr. Putin's increasingly assertive foreign policy means that overseas spying by the SVR has probably been accorded a higher priority in recent months.^[9]

"[30 diplomats] is a high number…..It begs the question of whether the Russians are more interested in diplomacy or in spying on Britain for political and military secrets….If it's the latter, it might be in the political interests of President Putin, but it's not in the long term interest of the Russian people." said Mark Pritchard, the Conservative MP who chairs the cross-party parliamentary group on Russia.^[10]

All of this is somewhat worrisome in light of the recent military new that Russia is making. The Russian military has successfully tested what it described as the world's most powerful non-nuclear air-delivered bomb, and this bomb is four times more powerful than the U.S. “Mother of all Bombs.”^[11]

"The tests have shown that the new air-delivered ordnance is comparable to a nuclear weapon in its efficiency and capability…[yet unlike a nuclear weapon, the bomb doesn't hurt the environment,]" said Col.-Gen. Alexander Rukshin, a deputy chief of the Russian military's General Staff.^[12] Rukshin said the new bomb would allow the military to "protect the nation's security and confront international terrorism in any situation and any region."^[13]

Ties to the West have been strained greatly in the last few years over U.S. criticism of Russia's backsliding on democracy, Moscow's vociferous protests of U.S. missile defense plans, and rifts over global crises such as the war in Iraq.^[14] Last month, President Vladimir Putin also said he ordered the resumption of regular patrols of strategic bombers, which were suspended after the 1991 Soviet breakup.^[15] The worrisome fact is that these occurrences show, in glaring relief, that Russia's long term goals to restore global clout and rebuild the nation’s military might are taking priority over their diplomatic ties with the U.S. and Britain.

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^[1] David Blair, Russian espionage in UK 'at Cold War level', Telegraph.co.uk, September 9, 2007, available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/08/wrussia108.xml (last visited September 13, 2007).
^[2] McNabb & Assoc., NationalSecurityCrimesBlog.com, Russian Spies at Cold War Levels in U.S., April 5, 2007, available at http://www.nationalsecuritycrimesblog.com/2007/04/russian-spies-at-cold-war-levels-in-us.html (last visited September 13, 2007).
^[3] Blair, supra note 1.
^[4] Id.
^[5] Adrian Blomfield, UK set to expel Russian diplomats in spy row, Telegraph.co.uk, July 12, 2007, available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=XL13RLKBNXXOPQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/07/11/wrussia111.xml (last visited September 13, 2007).
^[6] The SVR is KGB's successor organization which is responsible for gathering intelligence overseas.
^[7] Blair, supra note 1.
^[8] Id.
^[9] Id.
^[10] Id.
^[11] AP Staff, Russia tests 'dad of all bombs', CNN, September 12, 2007, http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/09/12/russia.bomb.ap/index.html (last visited September 12, 2007) The U.S. Massive Ordnance Air Blast, nicknamed the Mother Of All Bombs or MOAB, is a large-yield satellite-guided, air-delivered bomb has been described as the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in history. While the U.S. bomb is equivalent to 11 tons of TNT, the Russian one is equivalent to 44 tons of regular explosives. The Russian weapon's blast radius is 990 feet, twice as big as that of the U.S. design.
^[12] Id.
^[13] Id.
^[14] Id.
^[15] Id.